This weekend we’ve got the biggest competition we’ve ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entrance contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never thought we’d observe a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but that I was incorrect and I can’t wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so that we could see a number of ties for this 1st place prize, therefore strive to be different with your lineups somewhere, or leave salary on the table to differ in this way. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” play on the card by a good margin at his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high odds guys in cash so I can lock a triumph in there and worry about locating 3 other wins from my 5 other spots. We generally only need 4 wins in cash games to win against the cash line, so that’s what I take for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been quite remarkable in his UFC run and he’s overcome some fairly big names. On paper, this is only one of the simplest matches nonetheless. In addition, he has large time upside down with his finishing possible. He has an ITD lineup of -270, therefore that I think we could have 100+ points in this win. He’s a fantastic play in all formats, but he is going to be chalky in championships, so that is why he is my cash play of this week instead.
GPP play of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always good to target in GPPs since it just takes 1 shot with a lot of these men. I think this is a great matchup for Volkov and he’s priced at $8.7k this week. If he can get a 1st round KO at that price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he is a good GPP drama as well. But, my pick to win is going to be Volkov and that I like his price. I believe a few men priced over him this week will be a lot higher owned, so we could get a heavyweight favored at lower possession . Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -190, so this is a good GPP struggle to target over all. If you like the Black Beast to find the W, then he’s a fantastic fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. But on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I enjoy looking for line worth like that which alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has the better odds to finish this fight ITD, so that’s another and with him. I like the floor for Martin in cash games also since Laflare is not very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a reduction from Martin and take the things he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win here. However, he’s going to have to acquire a finish to pay off his $8.6k price . Sergio will not be heading for any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike at a high enough rate for him to find 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio are the better fighter on the feet, but when he does not get a finish then he likely only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it at $8.6k. There are only better plays points each dollar and people are the guys I’ll be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you’re earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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